{"id":13163,"date":"2026-05-19T16:33:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T16:33:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=13163"},"modified":"2026-05-19T18:19:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T18:19:14","slug":"coyuntura-otono-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/coyuntura-otono-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Coyuntura oto\u00f1o 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La lecher\u00eda argentina transita el oto\u00f1o 2026 con una se\u00f1al de mercado m\u00e1s ajustada de lo que sugieren los promedios anuales: aunque la producci\u00f3n del primer cuatrimestre todav\u00eda muestra una suba interanual cercana al 7%, abril marc\u00f3 una ca\u00edda estacional fuerte de la oferta (apenas +0,5% interanual), justo cuando las existencias industriales vienen bajando con claridad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

En marzo, los stocks finales se ubicaban en torno a 822 millones de litros equivalentes, 6% por debajo de marzo 2025, con una composici\u00f3n dominada por quesos \u2014cerca del 70%, principalmente duros y semiduros\u2014. Esta combinaci\u00f3n de menor leche disponible y reducci\u00f3n de inventarios, que en abril estimamos cerrar\u00edan entre 750 y 780 mill equiv lt) deber\u00eda presionar al alza el precio al productor. Encontramos un correlato significativo entre el nivel de existencias y el precio al productor del mes siguiente. En el gr\u00e1fico siguiente los precios en moneda constante segun el nivel de existencias del mes anterior. El \u00e1rea en celeste ser\u00eda el nivel de existencias esperado para abril 2026…y los precios percibidos por el productor en diferentes situaciones con esas existencias. Las existencias explican casi el 40% del precio siendo el 60% restante explicado mayormente por el recibo de leche, la competencia regional y las expectativas industriales para los meses siguientes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El dato clave para la coyuntura no es s\u00f3lo que hay menos leche en oto\u00f1o, sino que est\u00e1 anormalmente distribuida entre industrias, que acusan costos log\u00edsticos crecientes, y una dependencia alta del mercado interno. Es importante considerar la poca probabilidad de revivir una primavera exuberante como la del 2025, observando que ya en mayo 2026 el perfil de suelo pampeano (Agua Disponible en suelo hasta 2 mt., SEPA<\/a>) presenta -5% menos de disponibilidad de agua que mayo 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actualmente se observa una recomposici\u00f3n de precio rezagada porque la gran industria a\u00fan conserva m\u00e1s leche que lo habitual tras la crisis primaveral de 2025, mientras muchas PyMES reci\u00e9n terminando de consumir stocks, recuperando rotaci\u00f3n y vuelven a competir por materia prima. Si el mercado interno contin\u00faa convalidando precios ajustados y Brasil permanece bajo tensi\u00f3n comercial, la baja de existencias puede mejorar el poder de negociaci\u00f3n del productor, pero no necesariamente traducirse de inmediato en una recomposici\u00f3n plena del precio que tanto necesita. Entraremos al invierno con un precio superior a lo que la demanda quisiera pagar, pero inferior a lo que el productor quisiera cobrar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La lecher\u00eda argentina transita el oto\u00f1o 2026 con una se\u00f1al de mercado m\u00e1s ajustada de lo que sugieren los promedios 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lecher\u00eda argentina transita el oto\u00f1o 2026 con una se\u00f1al de mercado m\u00e1s ajustada de lo que sugieren los promedios 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