{"id":13300,"date":"2026-06-22T00:01:20","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T00:01:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=13300"},"modified":"2026-06-22T00:41:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T00:41:43","slug":"mi-pobre-angelito","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/mi-pobre-angelito\/","title":{"rendered":"Mi pobre angelito"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Para el per\u00edodo septiembre\u2013noviembre de 2026<\/strong>, el pron\u00f3stico ENSO indica una alta probabilidad de consolidaci\u00f3n de un evento El Ni\u00f1o muy fuerte<\/strong>, con anomal\u00edas de temperatura superficial del mar en el Pac\u00edfico ecuatorial superando los +2 \u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A continuaci\u00f3n observamos las predicciones que surgen de los modelos del International Research Institute (IRI)<\/a> una de las fuentes m\u00e1s consistentes en las proyecciones clim\u00e1ticas: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

En el plume del IRI, los modelos din\u00e1micos (DYN) simulan la evoluci\u00f3n f\u00edsica del oc\u00e9ano y la atm\u00f3sfera, mientras que los estad\u00edsticos (STAT) proyectan el ENSO a partir de relaciones hist\u00f3ricas. La coincidencia entre ambos aumenta la confianza; la divergencia refleja incertidumbre real y diferencias metodol\u00f3gicas. La media multimodal de las predicciones estad\u00edsticas y din\u00e1micas de ENSO observan una marcada de evento Ni\u00f1o hasta julio 2026, y proyecta que El Ni\u00f1o sigue siendo la fase dominante de ENSO durante el resto de 2026 y principios de 2027, con probabilidades de predicci\u00f3n que se mantienen consistentemente dentro de un rango notablemente elevado y estrecho del 97-98%. A pesar de este consenso excepcionalmente fuerte entre los modelos, a\u00fan se justifica cierta cautela<\/strong>, ya que las predicciones actuales se emiten cerca del final del per\u00edodo de barrera de predictibilidad de la primavera boreal en mayo, cuando la incertidumbre de la predicci\u00f3n de ENSO a\u00fan puede permanecer elevada (la incertidumbre cae significativamente con la predicci\u00f3n de agosto).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para el sector agropecuario argentino, este escenario aumenta la probabilidad de una primavera con lluvias +50% superiores a lo normal<\/strong>, especialmente en la regi\u00f3n pampeana, Litoral y NEA. El impacto potencial es doble: por un lado, mejora la disponibilidad h\u00eddrica para trigo, ma\u00edz temprano, soja de primera, pasturas y reservas forrajeras; por otro, incrementa el riesgo de excesos h\u00eddricos, anegamientos, p\u00e9rdida de piso, enfermedades, barro y problemas log\u00edsticos<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Veremos que predice las pr\u00f3ximas estimaciones del IRI para julio y agosto, pero mientras tanto se menciona una similitud con la primavera de 1997. Asi que busquen en sus registros! …lo que tenemos a mano son estos de Navarro, Carmen de Areco y Trenque Lauquen provincia de Buenos Aires:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

La recomendaci\u00f3n es, en lo posible, anticiparse: revisar drenajes y alcantarillas, abovedar caminos internos, accesos, antes de septiembre. Priorizar lomas y media lomas para los ma\u00edces buscando lotes con buen escurrimiento; mantener flexibilidad en fechas de siembra\u2026agua va a haber; reforzar monitoreo sanitario (patas, mastitis); y preparar los tambos, sean sistemas pastoriles o a corral, para condiciones de barro y dificultades de tr\u00e1nsito. Ideal ser\u00eda aumentar la capacidad de acopiar concentrados y de silos de raci\u00f3n. Recordamos la utilidad de los mont\u00edculos bien elevados para que las vacas puedan echarse en los corrales:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Para el per\u00edodo septiembre\u2013noviembre de 2026, el pron\u00f3stico ENSO indica una alta probabilidad de consolidaci\u00f3n de un evento El Ni\u00f1o 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el per\u00edodo septiembre\u2013noviembre de 2026, el pron\u00f3stico ENSO indica una alta probabilidad de consolidaci\u00f3n de un evento El Ni\u00f1o 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