{"id":13426,"date":"2026-08-14T13:38:56","date_gmt":"2026-08-14T13:38:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=13426"},"modified":"2026-08-14T13:56:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-14T13:56:02","slug":"cosa-fai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/cosa-fai\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfCosa fai?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Los productores de leche, acorralados por el descalabro de sus precios relativos, sufren la suba del costo de producci\u00f3n mientras el precio recibido cay\u00f3 en su poder de compra -18% con respecto al a\u00f1o pasado. Todo esto en un contexto donde el mercado interno absorbe el 70% de la leche, los precios mayoristas l\u00e1cteos ajustaron interanualmente +18,8%, el mix en g\u00f3ndola creci\u00f3 +22%, mientras al tambero solo +9,6% (datos de junio pues el Indice Mayorista de julio no lo tenemos a\u00fan). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

La industria llega a junio 2026 con el nivel de stocks m\u00e1s bajo para ese mes de los \u00faltimos diez a\u00f1os. Las PyME venden con fluidez y con una demanda firme, pero encuentran dificultades para ajustar sus precios. En consecuencia, sus m\u00e1rgenes se han reducido sensiblemente, situaci\u00f3n agravada por el marcado aumento del costo de la energ\u00eda. Seg\u00fan nuestra estimaci\u00f3n, el nivel de stocks explica cerca del 40% de la variaci\u00f3n del precio de la leche al productor. En un a\u00f1o normal, semejante escasez habr\u00eda impulsado una suba marcada de la materia prima. Sin embargo, el temor de que se repita la ola de leche de la primavera 2025 mantiene inm\u00f3vil a la industria: quieren la leche, pero nadie quiere adelantarse y, por ahora, se estima que los precios permanecer\u00e1n flotando alrededor de los valores actuales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Todo esto supone que la foto de hoy se mantenga. Pero si en el backstage<\/em> las cosas comienzan a restaurarse y por ejemplo se reactiva Sudamericana de L\u00e1cteos con 100.000 o 250.000 lt\/d, o vuelve a operar alguna planta de Ver\u00f3nica o a\u00fan SANCOR, la competencia por la leche podr\u00eda tensionarse r\u00e1pidamente, sobre todo en determinadas cuencas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al mismo tiempo, pareciera hay una especie de \u201cselecci\u00f3n de tambos\u201d en marcha. Con las grandes plantas trabajando al l\u00edmite y poca capacidad para absorber excedentes de las PyMES, alguna industria comenzar\u00eda a priorizar proveedores por volumen, cercan\u00eda, costo de recolecci\u00f3n, regularidad, calidad o potencial de crecimiento. Esa selecci\u00f3n no necesariamente aparece como un rechazo expl\u00edcito: puede manifestarse mediante menores bonificaciones, mayor incidencia del flete, l\u00edmites al crecimiento o condiciones comerciales menos favorables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A todo esto, un Ni\u00f1o Muy Fuerte podr\u00eda desarmar la expectativa de una primavera abundante. El exceso de lluvias, que no ser\u00e1 uniforme, afectar\u00eda la producci\u00f3n, la calidad de los forrajes, los accesos y la recolecci\u00f3n de leche, especialmente en las cuencas m\u00e1s vulnerables como la del Salado, y aquellas zonas bajas, con lagunas y cubetas de escasa salida, llanuras con napa somera y drenaje superficial lento. Con stocks ajustados, una merma o interrupci\u00f3n de la oferta presionar\u00eda r\u00e1pidamente sobre la competencia por la leche y podr\u00eda impulsar el precio al productor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El trabajo del IAPUCo viene monitoreando los grandes n\u00fameros de la Cadena L\u00e1ctea argentina. All\u00ed observamos (ver gr\u00e1fico), con asombro y preocupaci\u00f3n, que lo que antes se ve\u00eda como variabilidad, ahora se observa como tendencia: las cuentas generales dan negativo, pero el que pierde es el tambero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

En la cadena l\u00e1ctea todos est\u00e1n atravesando el temporal, pero mientras algunos navegan y otros achican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los productores de leche, acorralados por el descalabro de sus precios relativos, sufren la suba del costo de producci\u00f3n mientras 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productores de leche, acorralados por el descalabro de sus precios relativos, sufren la suba del costo de producci\u00f3n mientras 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