{"id":8875,"date":"2015-10-27T15:10:43","date_gmt":"2015-10-27T15:10:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=969"},"modified":"2015-10-27T15:10:43","modified_gmt":"2015-10-27T15:10:43","slug":"y-con-el-petroleo-que-pasa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/y-con-el-petroleo-que-pasa\/","title":{"rendered":"And with the oil what happens..?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"La<\/a>The collapse of the price of dairy international is impacting, in a varying degree, on producers from all over the world. The forecasts of recovery point to the middle of 2016, with the hope that China and Russia to normalize your purchases...and that the oil is recovered. There is a relationship between the value of the oil and milk powder (LP), our main dairy exported. Except China, most of the importing countries of the LP live in its sales of oil. By calculating the regression of the evolution of both price since 2009 to the present, we observed a lower correlation due to chinese purchases:<\/p>\n

\"ScreenHunter_522<\/a><\/p>\n

The question for us is how it will evolve the price of oil in the short and medium term?... A version of the expectations and likely scenarios is published in the US Energy Outlook 2015<\/strong><\/em>. This report considers a number of factors related to the uncertainty as to the future price of crude oil, including changes in global demand resulting oil,, crude oil production and the provision of other liquid fuels. The scenarios can be seen in the following graph:<\/p>\n

\"Futuro<\/a><\/p>\n

For the case of Reference<\/u><\/strong>, the continuous oil production of the united States contributes to a reduction of 43% of the price of Brent 56 US$\/barrel. Prices go up sharply from 2016 in response to the demand of non-OECD countries (countries that are expected to traccionen the future demand of oil). But anyway the growing oil production from the united States maintains low pressure prices while also maintaining the values below 80 US$\/barrel until 2020. As of 2020 production of USA starts to sag, but the contribution of the countries outside of the OECD and OPEC contributes to the price of Brent oil is kept below 100 US$\/barrel until 2028 and limits the increase to 2040 when it has reached 141 US$\/barrel.<\/p>\n

There is a significant variation in the alternative scenarios. In the case Low<\/u><\/strong> price, estimates a curve with smaller values at the case Reference reaching, in 2040 76 US$\/barrel a -47% over the Reference. This is mostly due to lower demand in non-OECD countries and increased investment in the OPEC.<\/p>\n

For the scenario of High<\/u><\/strong> price would be expected to finish 2015 with 122 usd per barrel and reached the 252 in 2040, largely due to a significant drop in the production of OPEC, and increased demand from countries outside the OECD.<\/p>\n

By the looks of it, it will be a slow recovery and hardly ever exceed 80 US$\/barrel. In that scenario the values of LPE oscillate around 3,300-3.400 US$\/ton.<\/p>\n

Editor's note: we suggest you read the note in the following link, which contains a new concept in this regard:<\/h5>\n
https:\/\/dairylando.com\/2017\/08\/03\/menor-correlacion-con-el-petroleo\/<\/a><\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n

Marcos Snyder<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El desplome del precio de l\u00e1cteos internacional est\u00e1 repercutiendo, en diversa medida, sobre los productores de todo el mundo. 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Los […]","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8875"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8875\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}