{"id":8974,"date":"2017-12-19T17:41:12","date_gmt":"2017-12-19T17:41:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=3557"},"modified":"2017-12-19T17:41:12","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T17:41:12","slug":"recalculando","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/recalculando\/","title":{"rendered":"Recalculating..."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"MorroEvolution of parameters that make the growth of milk production in Argentina<\/strong><\/p>\n

Analyzing the database with the evolution of the number of dairy farms, the number of cows, the milk production per cow, and the milk production is global in Argentina (data SENASA and MINAGRI), we put together the following table summarizing the evolution in the last 3 decades for these indicators:<\/p>\n

\"Evolucion<\/p>\n

Number of drums<\/u><\/strong>: the rate of drop in the number of establishments milk producers was very marked in the decade of the nineties, a 6.6%) to leave attenuating up to 1.8% in the current decade (2010\/2020e).<\/p>\n

Number of dairy cows<\/u><\/strong>: The reduction rate of the national rodeo is kept neutral (0%) to decrease to 0.7 percent for the decade of the 2000\/2010, a trend that continues in the current decade (2010\/2020e).<\/p>\n

Individual production<\/u><\/strong>: With the number of cows falling year after year, can only be explained by the increase in volume of milk (nationalMill Lts<\/strong>thanks to the increased efficiency of the individual (Lt\/VO\/d<\/strong> e<\/em>) of the cows. Probably this was due to the closure of drums migrated towards establishments more efficient. The increase in individual production (Lt\/VO\/d e<\/em>) was a significant rate in the decade 1990\/2000 (+7,4%) down to +3.1% in the decade 2000\/2010 and +1.9% in low-even more in the current period (2010\/2020e) probably due to have approached the limit to a national average of pastoral systems with supplementation. This value that a company-level may represent an annual average of 25 or 26 liters\/cow milking\/day, estimate would be around 23 litres with a general average of the rodeo argentino. Was estimated for this calculation, the 81%<\/strong> the cows totals were cows at milking (INTA 2013<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Projecting the future<\/strong><\/p>\n

We propose possible scenarios considering that the production of individual national average grew at a rate of +1.5% per year until reaching the 23 litres\/VO\/d, combined with 3 levels other than growth of the national rodeo: 0%<\/strong> (which would be an upgrade to the current -0,7%); +0,5%<\/strong> matching the observed in the rodeo and american +1%<\/strong> which would be a very good performance for all the national rodeo. The result of the job generates the following graph, with what we believe would be the evolution more likely for the milk produced in Argentina to stay in the next 33 years, the pastoral system with supplementation that has always held.<\/p>\n

\"PROYECTANDO<\/p>\n

Some of the observations that emerge from the analysis:<\/strong><\/p>\n

-The first thing that is apparent from the chart, is that it will take 5 or 6 years to recover the peak of production achieved in the year 2015 11.313 million litres of milk.<\/p>\n

-The 11.500 million litres are very much like a ceiling does not mediate growth in the number of cows, considering the decreasing rate of the production per cow.<\/p>\n

-We are far from reaching 18,000 million litres that we had proposed in the Strategic Plan Dairy in 2008, settling the problem primarily on the amount of dairy cows of the national rodeo. In fact, could only be achieved such production to grow the rodeo with a rate of +1% in the year 2060.<\/p>\n

–Without a doubt, the number of dairy cows is the central issue and we must focus on the growth of the rodeo dairy, above all things, both at the level of individual entrepreneur <\/strong>as at the national level. Suggest you read the note about the points critical to the growth of rodeo<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Marcos Snyder<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Evoluci\u00f3n de par\u00e1metros que hacen al crecimiento de la producci\u00f3n lechera en Argentina Analizando la base de datos con la 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