{"id":8993,"date":"2019-01-03T09:06:35","date_gmt":"2019-01-03T09:06:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=4016"},"modified":"2019-01-03T09:06:35","modified_gmt":"2019-01-03T09:06:35","slug":"dinamica-del-mercado-lacteo-argentino-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/dinamica-del-mercado-lacteo-argentino-5\/","title":{"rendered":"Dynamics of the dairy market argentino"},"content":{"rendered":"

En la 19\u00b0\"Cadena edici\u00f3n del\u00a0bolet\u00edn digital para el sector l\u00e1cteo<\/em><\/strong>, accedemos a la actualizaci\u00f3n al mes de NOVIEMBRE 2018<\/strong>\u00a0del c\u00e1lculo de\u00a0Valores de referencia del litro de leche cruda\u00a0<\/strong>elaborado bajo el convenio\u00a0INTA-IAPUCo<\/a>, trabajo que constituye un in\u00e9dito y destacado aporte para generar transparencia para los actores de la Cadena L\u00e1ctea. Todos los valores aqui presentados fueron ajustados por INFLACION mayorista utilizando el IPIM (Indice de Precios Mayoristas Interno<\/a>) del INDEC convirtiendo los precios corrientes publicados por IAPUCo en precios constantes de diciembre 2018 (estimando una variaci\u00f3n del IPIM para diciembre de +1,5%). Esto aporta una mejor comprensi\u00f3n a los factores operando en el mercado.<\/p>\n

Presentamos el gr\u00e1fico que resume la din\u00e1mica de la oferta y demanda del mercado l\u00e1cteo argentino en los \u00faltimos 25<\/strong> meses<\/strong>. Recordamos que esta informaci\u00f3n no debe tomarse como un dato puntual\u00a0preciso<\/em>\u00a0dado que surge de m\u00e1s de 500 modelos evaluados y presenta una gran dispersi\u00f3n. Es m\u00e1s bien una novedosa herramienta para que los actores del sector puedan ORIENTARSE al interpretar lo que ocurre entre la oferta y demanda de leche y observar la TENDENCIA que el mercado ostente.<\/p>\n

\"Evoluci\u00f3n<\/p>\n

El an\u00e1lisis arranca en noviembre de 2016. Hasta marzo de 2017 constituye una muestra del per\u00edodo\u00a0pierde-pierde<\/em>\u00a0que abarc\u00f3 los 19 meses previos al inicio de \u00e9ste convenio donde el precio pagado por la materia prima (l\u00ednea azul) no cubr\u00eda los valores necesarios para cubrir costos de producci\u00f3n de la materia prima (l\u00ednea punteada) y exced\u00edan tambi\u00e9n los valores posibles de abonar por la leche (l\u00ednea roja para la Mega y Gran Industria y amarilla para las Medianas y Peque\u00f1as industrias l\u00e1cteas). A partir de abril 2017 y hasta septiembre de 2017, el sistema gener\u00f3 valores netos positivos. Pero a partir de enero 2018 los costos de producir leche copiaron la evoluci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n mientras el precio percibido por el productor como tambi\u00e9n los valores de referencia industriales perdieron poder de compra.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Por el lado industrial se observa una brecha importante, con una capacidad de pago +11% superior para las grandes industrias por sobre la capacidad de las PyMES.<\/p>\n

Los valores retenidos netos (VRN) por la Cadena L\u00e1ctea siguen siendo negativos, como han sido durante todo el a\u00f1o 2018. Mientras para noviembre los VRN de la producci\u00f3n e industria marc\u00f3 una p\u00e9rdida de -1.054 y -825 millones de pesos\u00a0 constantes respectivamente, el sector de producci\u00f3n primaria lleva la peor parte asumiendo el tambero el 56% de la p\u00e9rdida del sector para el mes de noviembre y el 78% de la p\u00e9rdida de toda la serie.<\/strong>
\n\"Valores<\/p>\n

Marcos Snyder<\/a><\/p>\n

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En la 19\u00b0 edici\u00f3n del\u00a0bolet\u00edn digital para el sector l\u00e1cteo, accedemos a la actualizaci\u00f3n al mes de NOVIEMBRE 2018\u00a0del c\u00e1lculo 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