{"id":8999,"date":"2018-12-07T14:52:48","date_gmt":"2018-12-07T14:52:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=3934"},"modified":"2018-12-07T14:52:48","modified_gmt":"2018-12-07T14:52:48","slug":"dinamica-del-mercado-lacteo-argentino-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/dinamica-del-mercado-lacteo-argentino-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Dynamics of the dairy market argentino"},"content":{"rendered":"

En la 18\u00b0\"Cadena edition\u00a0digital newsletter for the dairy sector<\/em><\/strong>, we can access the update in the month of OCTUBRE 2018<\/strong>\u00a0the calculation of\u00a0Reference values of the liter of raw milk\u00a0<\/strong>developed under the convention\u00a0INTA-IAPUCo<\/a>, a work that constitutes a unique and outstanding contribution to build trust between the stakeholders of the Dairy Chain.<\/p>\n

We present the graph that summarizes the dynamics of the supply and demand of the dairy market argentino in the past 24<\/strong> months<\/strong>. Remember that this information should not be taken as a data point\u00a0accurate<\/em>\u00a0given that it arises from more than 500 models evaluated, and presents a large scatter. It is rather a novel tool for actors in the sector to be ORIENTED to interpret what happens between the supply and demand of milk and observe the TREND that the market holds.<\/p>\n

\"Evoluci\u00f3n<\/p>\n

The analysis starts in November of 2016. Up to march 2017 is a sample of the period\u00a0lose-lose<\/em>\u00a0that covered the 19 months prior to the start of this convention where the price paid for the raw material (blue line) was not covered by the values that are needed to cover the costs of production of the raw material (dotted line) and exceeded also the possible values of pay for the milk (red line for the Mega and Large-scale Industry and yellow to the Small and Medium-sized dairies). From April 2017 until September 2017, the system generated net positive. Pero a partir de enero 2018 los costos de producir leche comienzan una escalada notoria hundiendo a la producci\u00f3n en un desfasaje no observada anteriormente en toda la serie, profundiz\u00e1ndose durante el mes de OCTUBRE (mes que el costo creci\u00f3 +4,8% con respecto al de septiembre, acumulando +68% en lo que va del a\u00f1o)<\/strong>. Por el lado industrial se observa a la Gran Industria con una curva creciente de capacidad de pago por la leche que se va transfiriendo al productor en incrementos similares, mientras la Peque\u00f1a y Mediana Industria contin\u00faa con una capacidad de pago inferior a los precios del mercado por la materia prima.<\/p>\n

Los valores retenidos netos (VRN) por la Cadena L\u00e1ctea siguen siendo negativos. Mientras para octubre los VRN de la producci\u00f3n e industria marc\u00f3 una p\u00e9rdida de -1.002 y -742 millones de pesos respectivamente, el sector de producci\u00f3n primaria lleva la peor parte asumiendo el tambero el 57% de la p\u00e9rdida del sector para el mes de octubre y el 76% de la p\u00e9rdida de toda la serie.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Valores<\/p>\n

Entramos en una etapa cr\u00edtica del a\u00f1o en lo que se refiere a producci\u00f3n de leche ya que a partir de diciembre el volumen cae por efectos estacionales (p\u00e9rdida de calidad y volumen de las pasturas, estr\u00e9s cal\u00f3rico, insectos, lactancias avanzadas y secados masivos). Si a esto le agregamos la p\u00e9rdida de competitividad del poder de compra de la leche frente a insumos claves de producci\u00f3n (ver gr\u00e1fico) la evoluci\u00f3n estimamos ser\u00e1 peor:<\/p>\n

\"Insumos<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Marcos Snyder<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En la 18\u00b0 edici\u00f3n del\u00a0bolet\u00edn digital para el sector l\u00e1cteo, accedemos a la actualizaci\u00f3n al mes de OCTUBRE 2018\u00a0del c\u00e1lculo 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