{"id":9061,"date":"2020-01-23T14:32:53","date_gmt":"2020-01-23T14:32:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=4732"},"modified":"2025-10-16T19:48:06","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T19:48:06","slug":"desde-el-mangrullo-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/desde-el-mangrullo-5\/","title":{"rendered":"From the mangrullo..."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span lang=\"ES-MX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"  wp-image-3984 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/MAngrullo.jpg\" alt=\"MAngrullo\" width=\"301\" height=\"238\" \/>Hay muchas variables en juego en nuestra lecher\u00eda que han cambiado y van accionando sobre el mercado interno&#8230;el destino del 80% de nuestra leche. Las retenciones han vuelto a los valores puestos por la administraci\u00f3n de Macri en 2018, restandole rentabilidad a las exportaciones de leche en polvo. Igualmente hay que observar qu\u00e9 sucede con nuestro comercio exterior puesto que la LPE presenta una mejora de precio\/ton de +20,2% con respectos a dic\/18 (fila 20 del Cuadro Indicadores de la cadena l\u00e1ctea) y una mejora en tipo de cambio neto exportaci\u00f3n de +52,7% (fila 21). Exportar ese 20% de la producci\u00f3n es primordial para mantener o subir los precios de la Cadena L\u00e1ctea, cosa necesaria para que le llegue al productor el ajuste necesario para incentivar la dubitativa\u00a0 producci\u00f3n. Con 34,4% de participaci\u00f3n en el Valor del Litro Equivalente Total Sistema (VLE-TS) calculado por <a href=\"https:\/\/iapuco.org.ar\/decom-lactea\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">IAPUCo<\/a> (fila 16 en el Cuadro), para obtener los 0,30 US$\/lt o sea 18 $\/lt, el VLE-TS deber\u00eda pasar de 49,88 $\/lt Equivalente a 54,94 $\/lt Equivalente&#8230;un +10% de incremento.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"ES-MX\">El bajo consumo interno (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ocla.org.ar\/contents\/news\/details\/15073062-ventas-balance-lacteo-y-consumo-per-capita\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">OCLA estima un anualizado de 177 lt\/hab\/a\u00f1o 2019 vs 190 del 2018<\/a> (fila 14) presiona al mercado sumando un \u00abexcedente\u00bb de 5,7% sobrante de la producci\u00f3n anual argentina. De recuperar ese consumo (13 lt\/hab\/a\u00f1o por una poblaci\u00f3n de 45 millones totalizan un equivalente a 1,6 millones de litros diarios) la cuerda se tensar\u00e1 enseguida pues la producci\u00f3n primaria se encuentra con <a href=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/2020\/01\/18\/produccion-2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">menos vacas<\/a> y con producciones individuales mayores para lo que estamos acostumbrados a ver en promedio nacional.\u00a0<\/span><span lang=\"ES-MX\">Las tasas de inter\u00e9s est\u00e1n bajando y hay un preocupaci\u00f3n de la administraci\u00f3n de Fern\u00e1ndez en mejorar el consumo, cosa que afectar\u00eda favorablemente la cadena l\u00e1ctea toda. Al 5,7% excedente generado por el bajo consumo hay que agregar un nivel de producci\u00f3n +4% mayor para dic\/2019 sobre dic\/18 y existencias de +9.7% equivalente litros con respecto a dic\/2018, que en total equivalen a aproximadamente un mes de leche.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span lang=\"ES-MX\">Por el lado del frente externo, China sigue a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o incrementando su demanda de l\u00e1cteos (estimamos 2019 con +12% arriba del 2018). La producci\u00f3n de los principales exportadores se encuentra estancada (-0.2%), para el caso de Ocean\u00eda en ca\u00edda (Nueva Zelandia:-1% y Australia -quinto proveedor del Gigante Asi\u00e1tico- con -7% menos), lo cual deja al 2020 en una sana tensi\u00f3n. Todos los l\u00e1cteos mantienen firmeza en su cotizaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" size-full wp-image-4736 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/global-dairy.jpg\" alt=\"Global dairy\" width=\"521\" height=\"304\" \/><\/p>\n<p>El tambero necesita recuperar los 0,30 US$\/litro que ten\u00eda hasta las PASO y nuestra percepci\u00f3n es que demorar\u00e1 un poco m\u00e1s que lo visto a principios del 2019 cuando a partir de febrero 2019 comenz\u00f3 a escalar fuertemente (coincidiendo con el ingreso de Adecoagro al ruedo quien empezara derivando sus 350.000 litros de producci\u00f3n propia a su nueva planta). La menor cantidad de vacas lecheras existentes (nuestras cuentas sugieren 250.000 vacas menos con respecto a 2015) y <a href=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/2019\/02\/18\/se-reconfigura-el-market-share-local\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">la mayor competencia por materia prima <\/a>complicar\u00e1n la parsimonia de la demanda.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"  wp-image-4735 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/indicadores-dic-2018-vs-dic-2019-1.jpg\" alt=\"Indicadores Dic 2018 vs Dic 2019\" width=\"552\" height=\"423\" \/><\/p>\n<p>[twitter-follow screen_name=&#8217;dairylando&#8217;]<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/acerca-de\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marcos Snyder<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/acerca-de\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-4526\" src=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/agco-2-1.jpg\" alt=\"agco-2-1\" width=\"94\" height=\"100\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hay muchas variables en juego en nuestra lecher\u00eda que han cambiado y van accionando sobre el mercado interno&#8230;el destino del [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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