{"id":9104,"date":"2022-05-08T18:41:21","date_gmt":"2022-05-08T18:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=5787"},"modified":"2025-03-25T03:23:35","modified_gmt":"2025-03-25T03:23:35","slug":"evolucion-de-los-sistemas-de-produccion-en-argentina-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/evolucion-de-los-sistemas-de-produccion-en-argentina-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Evolution of the production systems in Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Presentamos aqu\u00ed un an\u00e1lisis de la evoluci\u00f3n de los sistemas de producci\u00f3n de leche en Argentina desde 1980 hasta el 2021 -42 a\u00f1os- y una proyecci\u00f3n hacia el futuro…hasta el 2030. Para las proyecciones (2025-2030) que figuran en el gr\u00e1fico debimos usar algunos supuestos por ejemplo que las condiciones de los mercados sigan en los rangos actuales (las dos \u00faltimas crisis se repitieron cada 15 a\u00f1os as\u00ed que con suerte hasta el 2030 no tendr\u00edamos otra!). Tambi\u00e9n que el ritmo de concentraci\u00f3n de tambos actual se amesete <\/em>en -0,7% tambos menos por a\u00f1o; que se detenga la ca\u00edda del n\u00famero de vacas y a partir de 2024 empiece a crecer al +0,5% anual y que se mantenga la tendencia del aporte creciente a la producci\u00f3n global por parte de los tambos grandes (+10.000 lt\/d). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Del gr\u00e1fico surge claramente que la concentraci\u00f3n de tambos que venimos observando continuar\u00e1 su proceso aqu\u00ed como en el resto del planeta: cada vez menos tambos, con m\u00e1s vacas por tambo y m\u00e1s producci\u00f3n por vaca<\/strong>. Reci\u00e9n en el 2024 recuperar\u00edamos el nivel de producci\u00f3n del 2015 previo a la \u00faltima crisis que, por los 9 a\u00f1os que llev\u00f3, puede considerarse una crisis m\u00e1s profunda que la del 2000 que llev\u00f3 7 a\u00f1os recuperar la producci\u00f3n previa. Actualmente estamos con producciones individuales altas para el conjunto de tambos (agrandado seguramente por los ajustes en n\u00famero de vacas que surge del SENASA luego de las crisis y la depuraci\u00f3n de registros). Hay una migraci\u00f3n de vacas que pasan de tambos que se cierran, mayormente del estrato con producciones inferiores a 4.000 lt\/d, a establecimientos que se expanden y presentan mayor eficiencia productiva. El mayor n\u00famero de vacas en los tambos y la creciente dificultad de conseguir personal calificado est\u00e1 despertando el inter\u00e9s en la incorporaci\u00f3n de tecnolog\u00eda que, luego de 30 a\u00f1os de estancamiento, comienza a expandirse en Argentina. De existir acceso a financiamiento productivo a todo nivel, este proceso tecnol\u00f3gico ser\u00eda mayor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El escenario<\/strong> que visualizamos arribando al 2030 es un crecimiento de producci\u00f3n fogoneado <\/em>por los tambos m\u00e1s grandes (+10.000 lt\/d) cuya participaci\u00f3n, que en 2010 era el 1% de los tambos apenas aportando el 5% al volumen total y actualmente con el 5% remiten el 28% de la producci\u00f3n, para el 2030 constituir\u00edan el 10% de los tambos y el 40% de la producci\u00f3n total de leche. La concentraci\u00f3n de leche de mayor calidad composicional e higi\u00e9nico sanitaria por punto de carga posiblemente induzca a un sistema de pago por atributos de la leche dejando atr\u00e1s el sistema actual de pago por litro. Esto aumentar\u00e1 significativamente la dispersi\u00f3n de precios atenuada hoy por el alto nivel de bonificaciones arbitrarias camufladas en \u00abcomerciales\u00bb. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marcos Snyder<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n

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Presentamos aqu\u00ed un an\u00e1lisis de la evoluci\u00f3n de los sistemas de producci\u00f3n de leche en Argentina desde 1980 hasta el 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