{"id":9125,"date":"2024-09-26T07:49:27","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T07:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=7000"},"modified":"2025-10-16T19:17:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-16T19:17:26","slug":"mirando-hacia-adelante","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/mirando-hacia-adelante\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking forward"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignleft size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Desde-el-Mangrullo-png.avif\"><img data-dominant-color=\"716d6a\" data-has-transparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"402\" height=\"344\" src=\"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Desde-el-Mangrullo-png.avif\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-9782 has-transparency\" style=\"--dominant-color: #716d6a; width:316px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Desde-el-Mangrullo-png.avif 402w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Desde-el-Mangrullo-300x257.avif 300w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Desde-el-Mangrullo-14x12.avif 14w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 402px) 100vw, 402px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arranca la primavera y la Cadena L\u00e1ctea argentina entra en la t\u00edpica fase estacional de mayor producci\u00f3n de leche. La industria procesadora deber\u00e1 ubicar el excedente de leche hacia el mercado interno, el mercado externo o aumentando el stock enviando la producci\u00f3n extra a la c\u00e1mara conservadora seg\u00fan como se interprete la marcha del negocio. Por otro lado, el tambero buscar\u00e1 reducir costos aprovechando el aceleramiento de la tasa de crecimiento del pasto para mantener la facturaci\u00f3n para un momento que coincide con la siembra del ma\u00edz para ensilar y generar las reservas forrajeras del invierno 2025. Este costo de hacer reservas (costo del cultivo + cosecha + ensilado), le representa al sector de producci\u00f3n primaria aproximadamente la facturaci\u00f3n de un mes de leche.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En este escenario estacional observamos la influencia de algunas variables sobre el precio de la materia prima:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Producci\u00f3n de leche<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumo de l\u00e1cteos<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Exportaci\u00f3n de l\u00e1cteo<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Existencias de l\u00e1cteos<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La <strong>producci\u00f3n<\/strong> de leche experiment\u00f3 una merma muy grande en primer semestre de 2024 (-12%) y luego, aunque sigue debajo de la curva de 2023, se le va arrimando en el segundo semestre y es de esperar que cerremos el a\u00f1o con valores similares y una ca\u00edda total de -7 o -8% sobre la producci\u00f3n total de leche del 2023. (ver gr\u00e1fico \u201cEvoluci\u00f3n de la producci\u00f3n de leche\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/evolucion-produccion-de-leche-2024.avif\"><img data-dominant-color=\"f1eff0\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f1eff0;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"458\" height=\"288\" src=\"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/evolucion-produccion-de-leche-2024.avif\" alt=\"dairylando.com | Liderando opini\u00f3n en lecher\u00eda\" class=\"wp-image-9986 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/evolucion-produccion-de-leche-2024.avif 458w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/evolucion-produccion-de-leche-2024-300x189.avif 300w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/evolucion-produccion-de-leche-2024-18x12.avif 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 458px) 100vw, 458px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">dairylando.com | Liderando opini\u00f3n en lecher\u00eda<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El <strong>consumo<\/strong> viene deteriorado por el atraso en los salarios mientras los precios en g\u00f3ndola crecieron por arriba del ritmo de la inflaci\u00f3n. El OCLA (Observatorio de la Cadena L\u00e1ctea Argentina) estima una ca\u00edda del -15% en consumo (de 190 lt\/hab\/a\u00f1o a 160 lt\/hab\/a\u00f1o en los primeros 8 meses del 2024). Las exportaciones hasta ahora vienen sacando la leche que el mercado interno no absorbe y no se exporta m\u00e1s porque no hay suficiente leche para ampliar volumen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Veremos c\u00f3mo evoluciona el recibo de leche industrial que, si bien estacionalmente comenz\u00f3 a subir, surgen inc\u00f3gnitas con respecto a sequias regionales y tambi\u00e9n peque\u00f1os indicios de mejor\u00eda en la actividad econ\u00f3mica que dan a entender que la recesi\u00f3n se termin\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El \u00faltimo factor y el que resume las 3 anteriores es el <strong>nivel de existencias<\/strong> que deriva de la producci\u00f3n sumando existencias iniciales y descontando consumo y exportaci\u00f3n. Es un elemento clave en la decisi\u00f3n industrial de pujar o no por la leche. En todo el a\u00f1o 2024 pese a la ca\u00edda del consumo mencionado el nivel de existencias ha sido inferior a las del a\u00f1o 2023 (ver gr\u00e1fico \u201cExistencias de l\u00e1cteos\u201d expresados en una evoluci\u00f3n relativa&nbsp; de los equivalente litros totales)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/existencias-2024-1.avif\"><img data-dominant-color=\"eef1f3\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #eef1f3;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"402\" height=\"247\" src=\"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/existencias-2024-1.avif\" alt=\"dairylando.com | Liderando opini\u00f3n en lecher\u00eda\" class=\"wp-image-9987 not-transparent\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/existencias-2024-1.avif 402w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/existencias-2024-1-300x184.avif 300w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/existencias-2024-1-18x12.avif 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 402px) 100vw, 402px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">dairylando.com | Liderando opini\u00f3n en lecher\u00eda<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El tambero hace 24 meses viene acumulando p\u00e9rdidas debido al deterioro de los precios relativos insumo\/producto. A partir de junio de 2024 la capacidad de compra de ma\u00edz se normaliz\u00f3 y actualmente se encuentra +23% arriba del promedio hist\u00f3rico de los 2 kg de ma\u00edz\/litro de leche. En estos meses los precios de la leche se amesetaron, pero en breve ingresaremos nuevamente en el escenario de puja por materia prima. El consumo se va a recuperar, los precios internacionales est\u00e1n tonificados y nos encuentra sin Derechos de Exportaci\u00f3n. Proyectamos que la capacidad de compra del ma\u00edz se mantendr\u00e1 arriba del promedio hist\u00f3rico por lo que ingresaremos en un ciclo de buen precio y producci\u00f3n creciente. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Estimamos que se vienen tiempos de estabilidad econ\u00f3mica donde para crecer, tanto el tambero como el industrial, hay que ser eficientes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img data-dominant-color=\"c6c5c2\" data-has-transparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"484\" height=\"226\" src=\"http:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Firma-website-1-png.avif\" alt=\"dairylando.com | Liderando opini\u00f3n en lecher\u00eda\" class=\"wp-image-9944 has-transparency\" style=\"--dominant-color: #c6c5c2; width:360px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Firma-website-1-png.avif 484w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Firma-website-1-300x140.avif 300w, https:\/\/dairylando.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/Firma-website-1-18x8.avif 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 484px) 100vw, 484px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">dairylando.com | Liderando opini\u00f3n en lecher\u00eda<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">[twitter-follow screen_name=&#8217;dairylando&#8217;]<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arranca la primavera y la Cadena L\u00e1ctea argentina entra en la t\u00edpica fase estacional de mayor producci\u00f3n de leche. La [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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la primavera y la Cadena L\u00e1ctea argentina entra en la t\u00edpica fase estacional de mayor producci\u00f3n de leche. La [&hellip;]","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9125"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9125\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12381,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9125\/revisions\/12381"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}