{"id":9141,"date":"2023-08-24T08:58:53","date_gmt":"2023-08-24T08:58:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/?p=6558"},"modified":"2025-03-20T01:01:01","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T01:01:01","slug":"haciendo-zoom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dairylando.com\/en\/haciendo-zoom\/","title":{"rendered":"Zooming in..."},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Empujan los grandes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A medida que avanza en el tr\u00e1nsito del a\u00f1o 2023, la producci\u00f3n primaria de leche va gastando \u00abtodos los cartuchos\u00bb para mantener la producci\u00f3n a pesar de los coletazos de la sequ\u00eda hist\u00f3rica 2022 y su permanencia en 2023. En julio 2023 y seg\u00fan el perfil de los tambos publicado por el OCLA (\u00abEstructura de la producci\u00f3n primaria\u00bb)<\/a> los \u00fanicos tambos que crecieron en su producci\u00f3n sobre el a\u00f1o pasado fueron los 500 tambos m\u00e1s grandes, arriba de 10.000 lt\/d en la estad\u00edstica pero un promedio de 17.858 lt\/d. Estos tambos, con su aporte ya rondando el 30% de la producci\u00f3n nacional y produciendo +10,5% m\u00e1s de leche sobre julio 2022, apuntalan significativamente la producci\u00f3n global. El impacto negativo lo muestra el resto de los tambos que promedian una producci\u00f3n -4% debajo de la del a\u00f1o pasado. El segundo gr\u00e1fico es un resumen del anterior para los primeros meses del a\u00f1o con las variaciones interanuales en % de aporte al volumen total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Panorama forrajero<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con la informaci\u00f3n que public\u00f3 la C\u00e1mara de Contratistas Forrajeros<\/a> recientemente tenemos la totalidad de hect\u00e1reas ensiladas en el pa\u00eds en la campa\u00f1a 2022-2023. All\u00ed surge que se ensilaron en total 2.658.415 has. de las que el 48,3% fueron para los tambos y el resto para producci\u00f3n de carne. Esto super\u00f3 en un +3% la superficie ensilada en 2021-2022. Usando esta informaci\u00f3n estimamos el rendimiento en base a los registros de producci\u00f3n de grano de cada campa\u00f1a del cultivo, que resultar\u00eda finalmente un -30% inferior al volumen ensilado en campa\u00f1a anterior<\/strong> (ver gr\u00e1fico \u201cToneladas silaje por cultivos para tambo\u201d). El 80% del volumen fue embolsado y 20% fueron silos a\u00e9reos. El 68% del total ensilado fueron cultivos de ma\u00edz, un 10% cultivos de sorgo y resto cultivos invernales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seg\u00fan Leandro Mohamad, gerente de Rock River<\/strong>, el laboratorio de forraje m\u00e1s importante de Argentina, los silos de ma\u00edz 2023 presentan en promedio porcentajes de materia seca inferiores a lo habitual, bajos niveles de almid\u00f3n y este almid\u00f3n presenta menor digestibilidad. Tambi\u00e9n observa mayor presencia de cenizas y micotoxinas. Agregado a estos promedios, se\u00f1ala observar, una gran variabilidad en los resultados de an\u00e1lisis ampliando la dispersi\u00f3n en la nube de datos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

La expectativa del impacto sobre la producci\u00f3n est\u00e1 centrada en este segundo semestre 2023 y seguramente los primeros meses del 2024. Se acabaron los megafardos de alfalfa, la oferta de fibra se reduce a materiales usados para camas (cascara de man\u00ed, de arroz, etc.). La falta de almid\u00f3n compromete los picos de lactancia y los costos crecientes del ma\u00edz y subproductos complican seriamente la suplementaci\u00f3n. En el siguiente gr\u00e1fico, tomado del informe con el Monitoreo de la lecher\u00eda Regional<\/a> que Dairylando prepara mensualmente para Progressive Dairy Solutions<\/a>, vemos la tremenda diferencia en evoluci\u00f3n de costos relativos que padece el tambero argentino:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

F\u00edsicamente faltan 3,9 millones de toneladas de silaje de ma\u00edz cosecha 2023. Esto a raz\u00f3n de 1 lt de leche\/kg materia seca, equivalen a 3.900 millones de litros<\/strong>. Veremos si es posible seguir reemplazando en este segundo semestre. Las esperanzas de empalmar con silaje de trigo u otro cultivo invernal son cada vez menores pues la seca contin\u00faa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A las puertas de la primavera con un mercado externo deprimido, poca comida para repartir en rodeo creciente de vacas que hacen pico en octubre-noviembre y el precio de la leche al productor cayendo en su poder de compra…\u00bfqu\u00e9 puede salir mal?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"dairylando.com<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n

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Empujan los grandes A medida que avanza en el tr\u00e1nsito del a\u00f1o 2023, la producci\u00f3n primaria de leche va gastando 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los grandes A medida que avanza en el tr\u00e1nsito del a\u00f1o 2023, la producci\u00f3n primaria de leche va gastando 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