While the asian giant remains a growth in the consumption of milk +1 liter/capita/year, in the sector of primary production is costing you to maintain the same pace. The chinese producers have prices of raw materials of the highest level on the planet, but being the 3rd country in size only have 8% of the agricultural area (1,000 m2/hab when, as a reference, in Argentina it has 10,000 m2/hab), soil contaminated with heavy metals and depletion of water of access to fresh water. The government can continue subsidizing mega-projects-drums, import cows, and maintain a high price for the producer, but the limit is imposed by the high cost of production accented with the importation of food.
With a growing middle class, it is equivalent to the entire population of north america!, the feeding preferences of the population are turning the grain into animal protein significantly increasing the consumption of meat and dairy products. The local government has proposed a target of consumption of 100 lt. equivalent litres of milk/capita/year as a tool to improve the health of the population and in 2021 with the historical peak production of 38,000 million litres China only covers 26 lt/hab/year. While 100 lt/hab/year seems little compared to the usual consumption argentino (190 lt), or the recommendation of 160 lt of the World Health Organization, the proposal almost doubles the chinese consumption current. Recall that in the decade of the eighties, the chinese consumption was 5 lt/hab/year for the entire concept, it is now moving closer to the 50 lt and put it on like goal 100 lt. Also with every year that passes the lactose intolerance traditional recedes with the entry of new generations of consumers of milk (despite being a country with a low rate of breastfeeding, the possibility that brought the import of formula milk quality allowed the grandmothers to provide milk to children accented this from 2009). In this context, the possibility of self-sufficiency in milk production itself becomes utopian.
Taking a bit of perspective, let's look at the evolution of imports in the last 22 years. In the TWENTIETH century virtually purchases outside were null and void. In 2008, with the adulteration of milk powder with melamine (in a very rustic an attempt to improve the analysis of milk protein, which generated some deaths and 300,000 children affected with varied severity), the population turned to the imported products, preference, which still prevails. Then the curve is markedly increased, with the fall of 2015, caused by a restructuring of the domestic economy and important to the current year 2022 with the policy of the COVID ZERO with a strong impact on economic activity. We estimate that the trend of imports that presents the chart will remain in the time: China needs milk.
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