The production of milk in Argentina accumulated between January and July of 2025 shows a year on year growth of +11% over the same period in 2024. This increase is significant, especially considering that we're living through the end of winter and into the spring, at which time the historically is reached seasonal peak of production. This supply growth tends to cause concern in the producers with respect to the evolution of the price of the raw material, since a greater availability tends to push the stock to the downside, except that the demand (internal and external) accompany (see graph milk Production in Argentina)
Domestic consumption
Domestic consumption presents a clear recovery: moved from 170 to 190 litres equivalent per capita per yeara jump relevant for an economy in fit. However, this improvement is achieved at the expense of lower values in constant prices of June 2025. According to data of IAPUCo(and as can be seen in the graph “Value of the equivalent of a litre of milk”) the fall in the price of the equivalent litre industrial was -5,7% in real terms (Jun/25 vs Jun/24), retail trade marked a –2,3% lower their prices constant currency and the producer -5.6%.
In other words, the consumer buys more, but the values that receives the string per litre sold are eroded by inflation.
Export and stock
The other engine of demand comes from the external front. The export reacted positively to in an international scenario plaintiff, which allowed sustain the removal of surplus of the domestic market. However, the stocks of finished products in the chambers of the industry is located +5% above 2024with a composition of these stocks where 70% are cheese.
Considering that 54% of the milk, argentina went, in the first half of 2025, the production of cheese, a segment with a lower profile exporter. Few companies cheesy involved in exports, so that the fate of these stocks depends largely on the local consumption.
Pricing policy industrial
A striking aspect is that the processing industry for the scenario mentioned, has only reduced the price of the raw milk in the same proportion that fit their prices in pressed in factory. That is to say, the transfer of the low was not increased to the impact suffered by the industry itself in their output values. This reflects that, despite the increased production, the competition to retain milk is maintained. No processor is willing to lose a raw material in a context where consumption could continue to improve in the short term, the export is holding a floor of demand and a european industry as Savencia, second largest producer of French cheeses, continue to grow in volume by projecting its future and establishing itself as the third milk in the local ranking (both in receipt of milk as in exported volume).
In summary, we estimate that the prices for the producer would tend to remain stable at constant values placing its value at close range to 0.38 US$/lt, which is the historical average.. The margin of manoeuvre of the industry is small: you need to ensure raw material and can not drill the fall in the price without compromising the fidelity of the milk providers.
