Wanting to analyze the impact of the historical drought we've contacted producers individually, we have conducted surveys and consulted the people of the House of Contractors Foragers (CACF). The following analysis is our best effort in putting numbers, estimation, that allow us to imagine the impact it will leave as a farewell to The Girl 2022-2023.
The silage maize is the most powerful tool that has had the milk producer to increase the production. Faced with the need to increase the load animal dairy farms were growing in the area sown to maize for silage making at the expense of area of pasture. Corn is the crop that more dry matter digestible produced per hectare and the harvest it's harvesting of the forage is reduced from 60% of a pasture to 90% of the silo. The curve of production is strongly influenced by this resource and we can see in the following graph taken from the CACF with published data cover up to the campaign 21/22 and we estimate the column of the 22/23:
As it can well be seen, and in good part due to the 2022 was the 4th consecutive year, with rainfall below normal, the producer has expanded the use of ensilados with cultivation of winter with the idea of supplementing that were not heard in the fields of maize. The first impact of this event Girl was a decline in the yields of these crops (wheat, oats, ryegrass), which yielded very little. And the second impact was on the yields of maize which is a huge range of situations, ranging from not having corn first date, going for the loss of full batches of corn late with some that were able to do some roll, up to lots more fortunate that amounted to a storm extra and have a bit of volume but with a bit of tang but drying in the field. These would be lots, with some rain in these days would fill the grain and give you something of quality to that of silage (low availability of starch in the silajes this year will be to consider).
In the following chart we estimate a possible development of the level of yields in the previous series (this is what we put together weighing the yields of maize recorded by MINAGRI to previous years, and an estimated own, according to the information collected in the field by the means above):
Combining the information from both charts above, we can make an approach to the tonnage of reserves by 2023, which would have the drums if our perception match the reality of which we'll find out in 15-20 days. In the next chart, we look at the impact on stocks: a drop of -43% in volume compared to the previous year:
This does not consider stock of the previous year, but few are those who have reservations to overcome June 2023. The thing is going to be serious, very serious. We ignore how many tanks will be able to continue in production as the billing will subside in a scenario of rising costs. In the analysed series there is a ratio of 0.42 lt of milk per kg of silage (with a maximum of 0.55 and a minimum of 0.31)...doing the accounts, we estimate that in 2023 the production of milk in Argentina could fall between -20 and -35%!. quite worse than 2016.
What could possibly happen to cushion as marked fall? it starts to rain as to sow verdeos and pastures (which will need to be planting more of the account to lower the load that depended on the silo) and then the weather follow favorable, without much clay nor too cold, with good productions of grass. It would be imperative that the ratio of the relative prices of the milk with the concentrates to return to normal...that 1 litre of milk to be able to buy 2 kg of corn again...and that there is corn to give it to the cows!
Enter mode "survival", we are in stocks boys!
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