In a time in which we travel in Argentina in the valley of production +10% more milk on the previous year, we find ourselves with a pandemic virósica caused by COVID 19 to a forced quarantine widespread collapsing seriously the sales in hotels, restaurants, pizzerias and shops of catering (so-called channel HORECA). The HORECA channel officially represent the 8% to 10% of the sales of dairy...but that statistic escapes him the informal market that this product is a significant... we estimate that 20-25% of the national milk ends up in mozzarella on top of a pizza. 
This contingency is started to measure obviously in the majority of the industry Smes cheese that maintains a significant proportion of customers in the HORECA channel. This triggers the increase of stocks and, in some cases transfer of raw materials, to the greater industry. With regard to the issue of stocks surge again the urgent need for reform of the law of warrants, law, which dates from 1914, for the Smes cheese can be financed against stocks that should be subjected to routine maintenance in a house owned or rented. Another theme that puts at risk the payment chain is the closure of banks, severely impeding access to liquidity for deposit and/or sale of checks, postdated to the wheel to keep turning. It is expected that this crisis push the economy towards greater banking. On the other hand, the quarantine has sparked a unusual demand for fluid milk. Shopping in supermarkets and wholesalers in different degrees, are still going strong. Some large companies have kept the price to your shippers to the milk of march and other businesses have increased following the objective of maintaining the purchasing power of the producer according to the inflation. The possibility of stockear milk powder and financed with the instrument of the warrant is a resource available for large-scale industry, in addition to its easy access to its implementation, represents a simple and safe execution in case of non-payment.
In the external front observed variability in the events of tenders for the future, but they show on average a recovery trend towards the second half of 2020 (with a drop of -4% in may-June, and subsequent recovery from August):
This curve is similar to the projection estimated for the evolution of chinese imports. In the curve that follows you can see from the estimates of the market where you see the steep fall in January and February, due largely to the effect of the new year 2020 chinese (peak in December 2019) and also, obviously, the first impact of COVID-19 in China. It predicts a slow recovery from August until January 2021 to an average level of 2019:
The consumption general is related with the price of oil, which this time is set in a low value at the level of 2000, chinese purchases without being an oil producing country has become 1st world importer of dairy and everything. Also in this case, unpublished...the consumption is very tied to the mood of the consumer and their income. Share this interesting survey conducted by McKinsey & Company conducted simultaneously in 5 countries further complicated by the COVID 19. For the survey carried out on the same date (between 20 and 22 march 2020) you can draw a trend of the perception of the consumer in the different stages of the curve pandemic: we are seeing optimism at the start of the event (united States) and also in the output of the same (China) and the worst perception in critical times (Spain and Italy):
Perception OPTIMISTIC think that in 2-3 months, the economy has recovered to a previous level or higher to the COVID 19; the INSECURE believes that the crisis will last 6 to 12 months and will continue a slow recovery of the economy, and finally the PESSIMISTIC think the pandemic will impact long-dipping the economic activity in a steep recession.
By the time the negative impact on the dairy is observed in the milk powder (-17%) and skim milk powder (-17%), while the cheese and butter have increased over the value of January 2020 (pre-crisis) +9% and + 6% respectively:
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