In the 19°
edition digital newsletter for the dairy sector, we can access the update in the month of NOVEMBER 2018 the calculation of Reference values of the liter of raw milk developed under the convention INTA-IAPUCo, a work that constitutes a unique and outstanding contribution to generate transparency for the stakeholders of the Dairy Chain. All the values here presented were adjusted for the inflation rate wholesale using the IPIM (Index of Wholesale Prices Internal) of the INDEC becoming the current prices published by IAPUCo in constant prices December 2018 (estimating a variation of the IPIM for December +1,5%). This provides a better understanding of the factors operating in the market.
We present the graph that summarizes the dynamics of the supply and demand of the dairy market argentino in the past 25 months. Remember that this information should not be taken as a data point accurate given that it arises from more than 500 models evaluated, and presents a large scatter. It is rather a novel tool for actors in the sector to be ORIENTED to interpret what happens between the supply and demand of milk and observe the TREND that the market holds.
The analysis starts in November of 2016. Up to march 2017 is a sample of the period lose-lose that covered the 19 months prior to the start of this convention where the price paid for the raw material (blue line) was not covered by the values that are needed to cover the costs of production of the raw material (dotted line) and exceeded also the possible values of pay for the milk (red line for the Mega and Large-scale Industry and yellow to the Small and Medium-sized dairies). From April 2017 until September 2017, the system generated net positive. But as of January 2018 the costs of producing milk copied the evolution of inflation while the price received by the producer as well as the reference values in industrial lost their purchasing power.
For the industrial side, we observe a significant gap, with a capacity payment +11% higher for the major industries on the ability of Smes.
The values retained net (VRN) for the Dairy Chain to remain negative, as they have been throughout the year 2018. While in November the NRV of the production industry and made a loss of -1.054 and -825 million pesos, respectively, the sector of primary production takes the worst part assuming the tambero 56% of the loss of the sector for the month of November and 78% of the loss of the entire series.
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