In the seventh edition of the digital newsletter for the dairy sector, we can access the update in the month of NOVEMBER 2017 the calculation of Reference values of the liter of raw milk developed under the convention INTA-IAPUCo, a work that constitutes a unique and enormous contribution to build trust between the stakeholders of the Dairy Chain.
We present the graph that summarizes the dynamics of the supply and demand of the dairy market argentino in the past 13 months. Remember that this information should not be taken as a data point accurate given that it arises from more than 500 models evaluated, and presents a large scatter. It is rather a new tool for actors in the sector to be ORIENTED to interpret what happens between the supply and demand of milk and observe the TREND that the market holds.
We see there an evolution that started in November 2016. As of February 2017 is a sample of the period lose-lose covering the 18 months prior to the start of this convention where the price paid for the raw material (blue line) was not covered by the values necessary to cover costs of production of the raw material (dotted line) and exceeded also the possible values of pay for the milk (red and yellow lines). From April 2017 until September 2017, the system begins to generate net positive. For November 2017 continue to be positive margins for large-scale industry, while that of primary production continue to be negative, making the situation worse than it had restarted in September.
This is reflected in the following graphic that describes the evolution of values retained for each link. The industrial sector, as of April 2017 he began to generate values retained positive accumulated in the 13 months of the study period +926 million pesos, while the production sector accumulates in the same period a loss of -734 million pesos.
With the production in franca seasonal decline, only some big industry has shown signs of interest in the milk. The domestic market halted the decline in consumption and began to reverse the trend which could end 2017 with values close to 205 litres equivalent/capita/year. Probably the fall in competition for the milk on the part of Smes, as observed in the graph in the Evolution of the dairy market, has given the industry the freedom to be handled with the milk that have (volume fell to 50% of its capacity of receipt).