According to the information generated under the convention INTA/IAPUCo we can monitor trends in the dynamics of the dairy market in Argentina. We note that the ability to pay for the large industry and smes has improved significantly from the removal of Export duties and price controls. In a scenario of declining 15.2% of the milk with respect to the first quarter of last year, we infer that the price of the raw material will maintain its purchasing power over the coming months.
In the following infographic we look at, as the background of the same, the evolution of the production of milk, where the valley in the first quarter of 2024, accumulates an average of -4,4 mill lt/day less in the receipt of milk for part of the industry.
The year in course presents a cumulative production ð15.2% lower and a domestic consumption, according to Balance Dairy of the OCLA, -18% lower, but the traction on the business imposed by the export market by pressing on the stock of dairy. As can be seen in the following chart, these instead of growing were closed -6% in April 2024 with respect to the level of stocks in April 2023:
With 58% of the milk entering a tub of cheese in the first quarter of 2024 it is reasonable to see that the greater proportion of the stock are entitled, with 70% of the total equivalent liter cheeses (48% hard cheeses, 34% semihard and soft 17% ), especially knowing that the majority of Smes are aimed at the domestic market. While the stocks of milk powder, the product mainly exports to fall -23% April 2024 vs April 2023:
This is a description of the situation, but you can expect a recovery of many local indicators from July 2024, including the GDP with what would in some measure the internal consumption in a context of external market sustained. The recovery of milk production local is subject to the improvement of production of cows that are currently in production (it is giving them enough to eat, but are still below the curve 2023) and compounded this by the reduction of the national rodeo in about 100,000 cows, that to be representative of the number, commit about 2 million liters/day of our Dairy Chain.
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