Stocks of dairy products is one of the thermometers to monitor the market for the purchase and sale of raw materials. If the camera is with a low amount of merchandise there will be willing entrepreneur to increase the price to the producer, and if the camera does not fit most cheeses will produce the reverse effect. The factors that make the level of stocks are varied, encompassing the level of domestic consumption, the prices of the international market, the exchange rate, and the tax pressure, among others. It also influences the perception of the employer with respect to current scenario and future prospects of the market.., for some actors to stay with stock represents a "nail" and for others, just speculation.
The stocks have a correlation with the price and account for 40% of what you are going to pay for the following month.
The following chart shows the dispersion of prices received by the producer to the next month's data STOCK, data published by MINAGRI towards the end of each month. The existence of dairy for the month of SEPTEMBER/2024 was published in the last week of October and offers a glimpse of the pressure that you may have on the price of milk to the producer. About 900 million of equivalent litres still in zone a "neutral" of prices, the stock of September represents 25 days of receipt general, and the prices will float values similar to July and August. What happens then will depend on if the volume of milk already started to decline, and the expectations of a recovery in consumption. Exports are still active.
While the stock in equivalent litres, have been increasing since July, September, 2024 is maintained -15% below what it was in September of last year. Almost 70% of the stocks correspond to the cheese (remember that about half of the milk in Argentina is going to cheese making with destiny, in great measure, to the domestic market. In the following charts, we look at the evolution of the main stock for the month of September of the years 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Exports of milk powder (leads Mastellone Hnos with 33% of the volume exported) grew by +45% in September 2024 with respect to August 2024. Exports of cheese just grew intermensualmente a +2% (with the mozzarella, the 50% of the cheeses exported, with +12%, and led by Molfino Hnos with 62% of the volume exported).
The peak of milk production was already. With the arrival of the heat, and the loss in quality of the pasture, the receipt began to decline, at a time that herald a turning positive consumption by changing the trend. The margins of the processing industry are fine but no one wants to lose milk.
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