We present here an analysis of the evolution of systems of milk production in Argentina from 1980 until 2021 -42 years - and a projection towards the future...until 2030. For the projections (2025-2030) that are listed in the chart, we had to use some assumptions, for example, that the conditions of the markets in the ranks of today (the last two crises were repeated every 15 years or so with any luck until 2030 would not have another one!). Also that the rate of concentration of dairy farms today amesete in 0.7% and drums least a year; that is to stop the fall in the number of cows and from 2024 to start growing at +0.5% per annum and that will keep the trend in the contribution to increasing the overall production on the part of the drum-large (+10.000 lt/d).
From the graph it is clear that the concentration of dairy farms that we have been observing will continue its process here as in the rest of the planet: each time less drums, with more cows per dairy farm and more production per cow. Newly in 2024 we would recover to the level of production of the 2015 prior to the last crisis, for the 9 years that led, can be considered to be of a deeper crisis than that of the 2000 that took 7 years to recover the prior production. We are currently with individual production high for the set of drums (enlarged probably by adjustments in the number of cows that arises from the GOVERNMENT after the crisis and the debug log). There is a migration of cows that spend drum are closed, mostly in the stratum with productions lower than 4.000 lt/d, to establishments that expand and show a higher productive efficiency. The largest number of cows in the dairy farms and the increasing difficulty of obtaining qualified staff is awakening the interest in the incorporation of technology that, after 30 years of stagnation, it begins to expand in Argentina. There access to financing productive at every level, this technological process would be greater.
The scenario we visualize arriving at the 2030 is a growth of production fogoneado for the drums largest (+10.000 lt/d) whose participation, which in 2010 was 1% of the drums just contributing 5% to the total volume and are currently working with the 5% refer to the 28% of the production by 2030 would be 10% of the dairy farms and 40% of the total milk production. The concentration of milk of higher quality compositional and hygienic sanitary point of load possibly lead to a system of payment by attributes of the milk, leaving behind the current system of payment per litre. This will significantly increase the dispersion of prices attenuated by the high level of bonuses arbitrary camouflaged in "commercial".
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