With a year-end closing unusually fresh, December ended better than expected and the first nine months of 2019, finally reached 10.343 million litres of milk a..., a -1,74% below the volume produced in 2018.
By analyzing the curves of evolution of seasonal (below) shows a remarkable rift between the year 2015, peak production in Argentina, with the rest of the following years. Average missing almost 5 million litres per day and this already looks a lot like a structural problem. We don't know yet convincingly the number of dairy farms commercial (9.500 ?) or number of dairy cows in production (1.572.933 ?) in Argentina, but it's doing the simple account of dividing those 5 million lt/d "missing" for an average production of 20 or 22 liters gives us missing between 230,000 to 250,000 milking cows (and 290,000 to 310.000 cows in total) with respect to 2015. Although 2015 was a year with the corn 35% cheaper than in subsequent years (representing 40% of the power), in 2019 the price of milk in constant currency was +25% higher, and the production of individual cows was increased from 2017 to 2019 (records own, and is CREATED), which is logical due to the strong debugging of the rodeo. Our conclusion is missing cows, lots of cows. We estimate that the reduction of the national rodeo cows should be in a 60% by the leaks that occur with each closing of tambo (rematadores they say that in each sale, the 15% of the cows are going to the fair and 85% to another tambo) and a 40% to an excessive level of discard (resource funding in times of crisis). Obviously, the performance of reproductive of the drums fail to compensate for the losses.
This estimate should be a warning light for the planning of the processing industry..., as to when we will have the concrete data maybe is too late. For the drums, tranqueras inside, the lower offer (-5 million litres/day less and more players large part of the demand) would be a guarantee that it will maintain the tension for the procurement of raw material while they decide the direction of the dairy argentina.
