2020 earned a national production of 11.113 million litres of milk. This is +7.4% on top of the year 2019 and 7.9 percent below the record year 2015 that were recorded 12.061 million litres. The year 2020 it is located 6° between the years of increased production.
Analysing seasonality of the curves of production, we observed that it was a stable year, and with less of a decline into December, a situation attributed to a cooler climate and dry which represented a favorable environment for the cows (less heat and less bugs). This is important given that the producers in November and December were strong adjustments in the use of food balanced and concentrated seeking to mitigate the rising cost of power with what was expected to see the impact on the production. Let us remember that the grains and by-products for December 2020 that had experienced an increase of +96% on December 2019 while the price of milk had grown only a +27% desconfigurando significantly the cost of power.
Fortunately, the negative expectations that are generated at the beginning of the year by the pandemic were not fulfilled and the domestic market increased dairy consumption +2%, exports were up +40% higher than the 2019 and stocks ending the year with -9% less (Nov 2020 vs. jan 2019). But the 2021 year began with a January of higher temperatures on January 2020 and it is expected a drop top with respect to the -9% -10% normal for December. In a survey bounded measure a decline of -15%, we'll see what he says the SIGLeA. But the dismal ratio input/output located January 2021 in a situation worse than in January 2016 (the first month of the year in which the production slumped -15%). Then with 1 liter of milk, you could buy 1,05 kg of food balanced and currently purchase 0.96 kg (estimating January at 23 $/lt!), when the average of recent years is 1.5 kg AB/lt of milk. For the relationship to compose the producer needs to an increase in the price of the order of +40%, which is unthinkable today, but a floor of 26 $/lt are indispensable to sustain the production. By the side of the internal market (participation by the Producer in a gondola is a 31.5% when the average is 27% and the prices of dairy products in a gondola late 15%) urges "thaw" the starting prices of the factory. By the external front to reduce delays to promote the foreign trade that comes toned.
In the box that follows some indicators to analyze the situation
Marcos Snyder
