The drought that affected the entirety of the surface of the Humid Pampa during the summer has come to an end. Even when the rains during late march and April are very uneven (For example accumulated from April to San Miguel de Monte with more than 250 mm and to Carlos Casares only 10 mm), most models of climate analysis (55%) report that in the period April-may-June we entered in a phase-neutral for Southern Oscillation of the ocean current El Niño (ENSO). This climate neutrality would be maintained also during the second half of 2018. It is clear from this information that probably fine weather for the development of winter crops, such as pastures and verdeos, but it is not clear whether the precipitation will recharge the soil profile for the next season of crops for the summer. Will have to wait until August to find out how would be the weather Girl, Neutral, or Child) for the upcoming campaign of corn and soybeans. We would leave behind, in this way, one of the most severe droughts in recorded history, local, due to its intensity and impact with a wide territorial coverage.
Summing up the consequences of the observed to the generality of the drums of the Humid Pampa could highlight four aspects:
- Lower volume of reserves
- Reduction platform grazing
- Lower yields and agricultural crops
- Rise of the concentrates
On average, we estimate that the drums have silage around between 70-80% of the volume budgeted with which you need to analyze in some cases, the purchase of hay to cover the potholes monthly and in other cases to implement sowing of winter crops, mainly wheat, with the fate of ensiling in spring and splicing, when the end of the silage corn. Have a team of forage crop (grinder drag and cart horse) could advance the use of farming winter.
The option of the wheat as a crop for silage making it stands out because:
-Provides a higher volume;
-Allows a grazing if necessary prior to closing the batch to accumulate volume and ensiling
-Allows you to include a corn of second in the rotation
-Picandolo in flag leaf achieves a quality as to maintain good milk production
-Introduces the option to leave a lot to harvest grain
Grains more expensive
The production of milk, by all of the variables that implies, unlike the coarse grains shows a lower incidence of drought on the production. In this context, one of the most worrisome would be the rise of the concentrates.
What to the humblest farmer is a lure, for the tambero the increase in grain prices resulting in increased costs. January 2018 to April 2018 and is a compound feed by 20% pellet soy + 80% corn grain increased by +25%. In the same period the price of milk we estimate (April not published yet) would accumulate an increase of +6%. In the chart below we look at the relative evolution of the two prices from January 2014 to date:
The purchasing power of the milk in front of the concentrates has decreased. The projection estimated for 2018 is 613 lt of milk/tn corn and compared with the historical average of 564 lt/tn. would be +9% above.
Some recommendations for a tough year, with the diets of the cows:
-Budget: physical and economic
-Assemble rodeos requirements and prioritize: Prepartum, Fresh Cow and Rodeo High Production.
-In response to scarcity of fodder to incorporate concentrated “fibrous” as: soybean hulls, wheat middlings, pellet of sunflower, cotton seed, etc
-Controlling losses in supplies, control balance mixer, control bosteo for signs of acidosis.
-Focus on Margin/Food. The most accurate indicator to predict profitability is the liters-free power/hectare that should give up of 25 lt/ha cow total.
Note: a Summary of the presentation in the Day of the Sociedad Rural Argentina 2018