There are two drivers with a strong action on the price of milk to the producer, and are the PRODUCTION of milk and the STOCK of dairy.
The stocks have a correlation with the price to pay for the following month.
The factors that make the stock level are varied, covering: level of domestic consumption, prices in the international market, exchange rate, tax pressure, “price controls”, among others. Also mediates the perception of the employer with respect to current scenario and future prospects of the market...for some actors to stay with stock represents a "nail" and for others, just speculation.
The following chart shows the dispersion of prices received by the producer to the next month's data of STOCKS. The prices are expressed in constant currency in February 2024. We see there the price SIGLeA to January 2024 and a bar sky with stocks of the previous month (feb/23), measured in million of equivalent litres. Also a bar with pink stocks in the month of January 2024 and a dispersion of the prices given in the series the following month of such volumes of stocks and the price paid in February 2024. Exports were activated with the improvement of the exchange rate and the elimination of export duties to the point of getting to February exporting 32% of the total milk produced. The month of February 2024 brought a sharp drop in production (-17.7% year-on-year). In spite of the decrease in the domestic consumption stocks fell -9% with respect to January/24. This is good news for the producer as it promises to bring real improvement in prices! The average price in the series for volumes of stocks similar to 796 million of equivalent litres of February, 2024 is 310 $ constants February 2024/lt of milk.
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