The horizon for the dairy market global emerging with positive signals for producing countries. According to recent projections Global Dairyby the year 2035 the world will face a structural deficit of approximately 20,000 million litres of milk equivalent, driven by factors such as population growth, urbanization, increased purchasing power in Asia and Africa, and, especially, a decrease in sustained production in Western Europe due to environmental restrictions.
This scene opens a window of strategic importance for the countries exporters of dairy products, especially those with available natural resources, productive efficiency, and a structure exporting consolidated. The message is clear: the global demand will exceed the structural supply, generating pressure on prices and a new logic-based, competitive sustainability..
The transition european and the brake on Oceania
One of the drivers of change is the ecological transition in Europe, with strict policies on emissions, management of manure and fertilizer use. This has begun to limit the production dairy countries such as the Netherlands, Germany and France in the first quarter by 2025, come -3% below the volume of last year. Projections Rabobank estimate that Europe could reduce between 10,000 and 15,000 million litres of its annual production to 2035, thus consolidating part of the missing global projected. However, Oceania unable to occupy the role of provider compensator that it had in previous decades. New Zealand, the largest exporter of dairy in the world, is facing strong criticism of environmental pollution of the water, with regulations that limit the expansion of the herd. It is also the country with the highest number of dairy cows per capita, which could create social tension and political pressure for a more contained. In the chart “Dairy: Cow and pig Manure/inhabitant” we observe, on the right, the countries with the highest environmental difficulties. Australia, for its part, has seen a steady drop in milk production since 2015, losing competitiveness by climatic factors, consolidation of dairy farms and urbanization of productive zones.
Asia demand
In contrast, the demand remains strong in Asia. Despite their active policies seeking self-sufficiency, China, the principal importador mundial de leche y derivados, seguirá dependiendo de importaciones de productos lácteos para abastecer su mercado interno en expansión, que impulsado por el crecimiento de la clase media y el cambio en los patrones alimentarios crece a razón de 1,5 equivalente lt/Hab/año. China, con sus altos costos de producción no logra competir en escala ni eficiencia con los exportadores tradicionales. A pesar de haber copiado el modelo californiano (con inversiones millonarias en freestalls y equipos de ordeñe rotativo), con las dietas de las vacas diseñadas por destacados nutricionistas norteamericanos, la producción individual de esos mega tambos difícilmente supera los 30 lt/VO/d debido a la escasez de alimentos de calidad local para esas vacas.
The United States and Argentina: the protagonists of the new map-dairy
In this scenario, United States and Argentina appear as the countries with the greatest potential to generate the milk is missing. Both share the advantage of availability of land, water and structure of export, key elements to become reliable suppliers and sustainable of the most dynamic markets in the world. In the case of Argentina, the ample availability of agricultural land, the increasing incorporation of technology, and a profile of competent and proactive local entrepreneurship would lead to an increase in volume without losing environmental efficiency.
