A projection in the medium term for the dairy argentina
Of the fundamentals dairy, we observe that:
1.- The oil will continue throughout 2017 about 50 US$/barrel Brent and we know that there is a high correlation between oil and milk powder. With these values of US$50 per barrel averages of LPE (milk powder) averaged in the database for 2,200 US$/tn LPE...According to the Annual Energy Outlook USA 2015 just for the 2018-2020 will be about 75-80 US$/barrel Brente with what the values of LPE to be expected would be located in the 3,300 US$/tn, giving it another colour to the international market. This is because the 50% of the imports of milk are of oil-rich countries.
2.- By the side of the imports of China (1st importer of dairy products, mainly milk powder) is observed an increase of 20.8% over the first half of the catastrophic 2015 ...that is a driving force and is perhaps explaining the mild increases in the price of milk powder...a light at the end of the tunnel.
3.- Russia (2nd importer of dairy products, mostly cheese) will continue with the blockade of food to the USA and EU until they pass anger for the punishment western (not more credit) by giving missiles to the rebels and Ukrainian. They bought the 25% of the cheese exported to the planet (we still buy).
4.- The EU and USA follow sobreofertando milk to a market with stocks rising.
5.- Need to see what the winds bring the Brexit on the global economy that is already attenuated and low growth projections for 2016 and 2017.
6.- Tranqueras inside: to this date last year cobrábamos, in constant currency, 5 $/lt and bought corn 1,300 $/tn (constant currency)...we now charge a 4.2 $/lt and the corn up to 2,500 pesos/tn. Without a doubt, the equation has changed significantly and that will count the chips in the grass! The industrial business is very tight, not because it does not raise prices, but because it lowered the consumption...obviously would like to pay less milk but the weather complicated unexpectedly. The level of stocks is maintained by the fall in consumption because the reception has been diminished significantly. Only if the consumption revive you might expect higher prices for milk. See how to evolve the drums santafecinos and cordovan with the residual effects of the flood...if you dry may choose to plant soybeans, which would be the fastest way to recover capital. All the world is taking less milk for adjustments in diets, no supplements as before.
Manijear seriously the production of grass with fertilizer (high dose at sowing and refertilizaciones with urea to who deserves it) arrimándonos to the border of production potential. With more grass, a little less focused and settings in the charging animal can be kept liters-free feeding of cow that we had last year.
Diversification is a strategy reassessed...soybean and/or breeding male that is very easy to implement, taking pastures, silo, etc, in tambo.
Marcos Snyder