Production falls argentina to the 2016 closing possibly with a 13-14% less with respect to 2015. It is expected a jackknife still of the current crisis on the production for the years 2017 and 2018, and (assuming the output of the business of more than 400 dairy farms, prices below the costs of production, and drag liabilities trade for the dairy farms in activity). It is expected for those years, a smaller supply of milk, a volume that would barely reach to cover domestic consumption with special impact in the autumn months, putting at stake the malvisto “clearing” industrial (not to exercise pressure on prices in the tambero industries are sent milk, among them). This will involve a period with good prices for the producer (if you had a 32% stake, which took the production in 2014 about the price of the gondola, we might expect a price per litre is close to 6 weights).
- The contraction in consumption maintains a level of stock that represents between 1.5 and 2 months of production, a little greater than the average of the stocks of the stocks of dairy products for the year 2014 was 1.2 months. This is the only factor bassist observable and would explain the plateau of producer prices (aided by the above-mentioned “clearing”).
- Maintained the upward trend in the price of milk powder, it is hoped that this will add a factor bullish for the demand on the part of the companies polveras. The values November 2016 (3.370 USD/tn) are more than 47% at November 2015 (2.300 USD/tn). Currently (as of October), the export volume accounts for about 14% of the volume produced contrasting significantly with the 25% from 2014. The expectation of greater import of milk powder from China for 2017 (+15% over 2016) and the lower milk production of the main exporters (except USA) underpins the bullish trend. The strengthening of the dollar attenuates this factor. By the side of the oil is expected to a value 20% higher for 2017 over the current year and it is well known that high correlation with the value of milk powder.