In the 17°
edition digital newsletter for the dairy sector, we can access the update in the month of SEPTEMBER 2018 the calculation of Reference values of the liter of raw milk developed under the convention INTA-IAPUCo, a work that constitutes a unique and outstanding contribution to build trust between the stakeholders of the Dairy Chain.
We present the graph that summarizes the dynamics of the supply and demand of the dairy market argentino in the past 23 months. Remember that this information should not be taken as a data point accurate given that it arises from more than 500 models evaluated, and presents a large scatter. It is rather a novel tool for actors in the sector to be ORIENTED to interpret what happens between the supply and demand of milk and observe the TREND that the market holds.
The analysis starts in November of 2016. Up to march 2017 is a sample of the period lose-lose that covered the 19 months prior to the start of this convention where the price paid for the raw material (blue line) was not covered by the values that are needed to cover the costs of production of the raw material (dotted line) and exceeded also the possible values of pay for the milk (red line for the Mega and Large-scale Industry and yellow to the Small and Medium-sized dairies). From April 2017 until September 2017, the system generated net positive. But as of January 2018 the costs of producing milk begin a climbing notorious sinking to the production in a drift is not observed previously in the series, to deepen during the month of September (the month that the cost grew +11% with respect to August). Fortunately, from August and September, you start to see an improvement in the ability to pay of the big industry attributable to updates to price lists and a greater involvement of the external market in the business portfolio.
Since September there have been strong reacomodamientos in the price lists in out of the factory and by the improvement of the business exporter by +30% in growth of the exchange rate, justify improvements in the prices of the raw material.
The values retained net (VRN) for the Dairy Chain to remain negative. While in September the NRV of the industry were lower than for August (see chart), the sector of production, exacerbated the loss, assuming the tambero 68% of the loss of the sector for the month of September and 80% of the loss of the entire series.
The situation is critical. In a context of high inflation and high rates, has succeeded in quieting the dollar, at a cost that does not yet imagined. Obviously this plan is a "Z" (a plan to maintain governance), but I urge you to recover the plan "To" and become a country sound once and for all.
Meanwhile, the dairy producer hopeless requires a recomposition of the price received for milk that will keep your production. The estimated value to retrieve price of milk in front of the drift with the cost of power is 10 pesos/liter (due to the decline in the dollar during the current month, this value experienced a lower than before estimábamos in 11$/lt):
