The production of milk in argentina started moving the 2nd half of the year, a period in which the climatic seasonality occurs the peak annual production. The first question that arises in the sector is what level of production will have this year. As we can see in the following graph having started the year with significant increases year-on-year, with the amesetamiento the price of milk in constant currency, the increase of grains and by-products and reduced production of the drums is generated by the drought, the production was slowed down and began to fall year-on-year forecasting a spring with volume lower than last year. We estimate a spring with a volume of -1% to -2% lower than 2021, and a total volume by 2022 negative.
In this context, Argentina comes exporter of +30% more of LPE in the past year, and seeing how a fall in the international prices of milk powder (LPE), help the revival of the sales to Brazil, both LPE as of mozzarella. In the graphs that follow are clearly seen:
The low milk production in Brazil took the price to the producer to 0.60 US$/lt for June, July mentioned 0,70 US$/lt and is expected for August 0,59...values that explain the best values for local exports to those published for Oceania (July 2022 : 4.610 US$/ton LPE and 4.670 US$/ton mozzarella). Currently, Brazil is the target of the 36% of the LPE (in January 2022 was 0%), and 52% of the mozzarella exported by Argentina.
[twitter-follow screen_name=’dairylando’]