The milk production in Argentina in the year 2024 fell baddly. With a strong reduction in the number of dairy farms and cows, closed the year with -7% milk unless 2023.
In the chart “milk Production in Argentina,” we look at the evolution of seasonal to interannual variations of each month. The fall ripped from the spring 2023 onwards and ending 2024 we were on the road -600 dairy farms and -100.000 cows pressing strongly on the production. At the start of the 2024 the price of milk was recovered significantly, and by changing the purchasing power of the food. In the year 2023, you could buy 1.6 kg of corn/liter of milk and the average purchase throughout the 2024 was 2.3 kg of corn (a +44% higher) period that the producers, seeking to recover the business, feeded very well their cows. But even though obtained little response due dairy herd that was decimated in number and very affected by the terrible power of 2023.
Only toward the end of 2024 the individual cow production responded to the level of feeding generating a variation year-on-year positive from november 2024. january 2025 closed with a production average of 28.4 million litres milk/day, up +5.6% on jan/2024, confirming the trend in the recovery with respect to the year 2024. While production projections for the year 2025 range +4 to +5%, the lower cow number would keep a missing piece of 1-1,5 million litres/day.
In the first semester of each year is observed on the lower volume of the receipt of milk for part of the industry by a factor of seasonality marked by the high temperatures of summer, days in milk extended and the dried mass of cows preparing to rodeo dairy for the spare that starts with the new deliveries by 2025. This is a period of recovery for milk farmgate milk price.. To project the impact of the shortage of milk produced on the prices of raw materials is important to monitor the stock of dairy products.. The factors affecting stock level are varied, covering: level of domestic consumption that must be retrieved, international market prices, which are tuned with the market to future holding values above the 4,100 US$/ton, both for the milk powder as for the mozzarella for the next four months, the kind of change which comes less than previous years, but in a unique setting for the local economy, the tax pressure coming down with the elimination of export duties, and finally the perception of the employer with respect to current scenario and future prospects of the market because for some actors to stay with stock represents a "nail" and for others, it is simple speculation.
What is observed in the graph “Stocks of dairy” is that, until the month of december 2024, a level of inventory increased ranking above the average of the series (917 million of equivalent litres of milk), but already in january 2025 generates the turning seasonal typical decreasing. The pressure on prices occurs when the volumes of the stocks fall below this average. We will see the evolution from february 2025, when the receipt of decreasing milk begins to be noticed, the consumption to improve and external market toned.
