In December 2023 we wrote that 2024 was going to be a positive scenario for the tambero argentine and it turned out better than expected! Relative prices, which were a runaway by an unusual inflation of prices of concentrates and a stagnation in the price of milk to the producer, he recovered remarkably. After 24 months of red numbers 2024 brought green numbers allowing a reconstruction of the accounts. The difference between cost current compared with last year are extremely noticeable and can be seen in the graph in the “Cost of the diet Cow's Milk” where the average cost of power 2024, with 13,2 lt milk/VO/d, was -31% lower than the same period in 2023 which was average of 19.3 lt/VO/d.
With all this, the production of milk in Argentina is set to maximum. With all the producers and feed loosely to their cows to take advantage of the excellent ratio of the price of the milk that you are getting from October 2024 would be little less than the ceiling for the coming year. The difference with the normal curve with 1.5 to 2 million liters/day product of the missing -90.000 cows that came out of the rodeo between 2023 and 2024. The speed to retrieve the number will be affected by the missing also 22,000 heifers. Considering these factors, we estimate that the production of milk in 2025 would progress a +3.5 up to the year 2023 totalling in this first approach about 10.902 million litres in total (see the following chart “Evolution of the milk production”).
2025 presents good prospects for the production of milk because the purchasing power of the milk is maintained. Even in the case of the elimination of export duties that generates an increase of +15% of the corn, of the current purchasing power of 2.4 kg of corn per litre of milk would fall to 2.1 kg/lt slight above the historical average. We also note that the best local prices in dollars came to stay. On the other hand, in the framework of an economy stabilized, the access to bank financing for productive investments will expand significantly. An opportunity to address issues of animal welfare (sheds, roofs, sheds), update the facilities of milk, and access to a wide variety of embodiments technology. All of this will promote greater productions of milk, allowing dairy farmers to achieve the necessary scale of production.
In the international context the increasing trends in demand will generate a shortage of milk, which is going to accumulate in the next 10 years. It is estimated that by the year 2035 the volume of milk marketed internationally will grow a +21%, which represents the production of milk 3 Argentinas. A great opportunity for the local production, as major exporters such as the European Union and Oceania will reduce its production by environmental constraints, leaving the united States and Argentina as countries with the highest potential to meet this extra demand.
The coming year promises to be a period of growth and opportunities to transform challenges into achievements sustainable.
