Factors to evaluate the productive potential of milk in Argentina 2023
1.- Scenario agroclimático
To analyze what is going on (water-to-three times the normal depth, lagoons, dry, etc) you have to understand that not only the 2022 was the year with the lowest record of rainfall in 100 years, but that was preceded by 3 years with rainfall lower than normal (historical average). See chart Annual rainfall. To this we must add that, at the start of the first quarter of 2023, and having vanished The Girl, we observed the lowest accumulation of rainfall for the period of the historical series (see chart Rain in the 1st quarter).
All of this takes a look at the following map with the useful water in the soil profile, where you can see clearly the contrast with the situation in the same date last year (April 2023 vs April 2022) highlighting the continuity of the state of drought in nearly all of the dairy basin of argentina.
2.- Scenario fodder
The first and worst impact of the drought is the sharp drop in the volume of reserves available for this year estimated -46% lower than the tons of year 2022. It started with little silo of corn in the summer 2022, after the failure of the winter cereals sown to cover that hole 2022, to lead to the unexpected failure of the corn 2022-2023. All producers are hopeful to be able to correct the missing with the sowing of grain in the current year because of the announcement of weather normalized and possible Child, but began may 2023 with profiles nuts, and wheat, whose sowing starts in this month, with no chance of being seeded. The situation is identical to the planting of verdeos and pastures thing that is only seen in a few areas favored by some rain isolated. The missing silajes will exert strong pressure on the production of milk in dairy farms as it explains the 30% of the same (production individual and load) and we wouldn't have 11 million tonnes. Computing the best conversion of the series (2015) in lts of milk/kg of silo remaining would be equivalent to a decrease in production of the -15%. The missing will be noticed towards the exit of the winter when it is to see if the soil profile was improved in humidity or not. The producer needs to bill and hopeful for the arrival of the verdeos or the silo of wheat in the spring will try to keep the diet as much as possible. The adjustment will reduce rodeo dairy and then shrink food.
3.- Scenario of by-products and concentrates
The scenario forage is critical, and the provision of fiber will be also. It will be important to be able to access the purchase of concentrates and by-products for animal feed. We will enter the winter without stocks megafardo alfalfa or pasture in general will see a lot of diets challenging in the ratio of forage:concentrate generating a scenario of lower solids in the milk. Agricultural losses in Argentina have been estimated higher than 20,000 million dollars, and are estimated to give up half of what is normal for soybeans to corn. There will be very little grain itself and nothing leverage agricultural. The plants can't stop (the grinding continues beneath the 2022) by importing soya from Brazil will continue to grow (as triples in the first quarter of 2022), which means a cost of the bean +25% above the local market with similar impact on the derivatives as husk, expeller and flour. We'll see what happens with the corn. It all adds pressure on the costs that are already out of date.
4.- Productive scenario
The first quarter of 2023 began with a modest decrease in the volume of milk produced from-0.2% on the same period in 2022. But march 2023 began to enlarge the decline with -3,1%. Looking at the data published by the OCLA with the Structure of the primary production we noticed that the only ones who kept an increasing volume (+10.7 per cent) have been the drum major in a good part buenos aires with another productive structure and with more back (+ 10.000 lt/d but averaged 17.714 lt/d). The rest of the drums come in decline on 2022 and we'll see how the story goes :
[twitter-follow screen_name=’dairylando’]