Boots spring and the Dairy Chain to argentina comes in the typical phase-seasonal greater milk production. The processing industry will need to locate the surplus milk to the domestic market, the foreign market or an increase in the stock sending the extra production to the camera conservative depending on how you interpret the running of the business. On the other hand, the tambero will aim to reduce costs by taking advantage of the acceleration of the rate of growth of the grass to keep the billing for a time that coincides with the planting of maize for silage making and generate bookings forage in the winter 2025. This cost of making reservations (cost of cultivation + harvest + silage), represents the sector of primary production about the billing of one month's milk.
In this scenario, a seasonal look at the influence of some variables on the price of the raw material:
- Milk production
- Consumption of dairy products
- Export of dairy
- Stocks of dairy
The production milk experienced a decline very large in the first half of 2024 (-12%) and then, though it was still under the curve of 2023, you will be entering your mouth in the second half and is expected to close the year with similar values and a total decline of -7 or -8% of the total milk production of 2023. (see the chart “Evolution of the production of milk”)
The consumption comes deteriorated due to the delay in wages, while prices in gondola grew above the rate of inflation. The OCLA (Observatory of the Dairy Chain to Argentina) estimated a decline of -15% in consumption (190 lt/hab/year to 160 lt/hab/year in the first 8 months of the 2024). Exports up to now they are getting the milk that the internal market does not absorb and does not export more because there is not enough milk to expand volume.
We'll see how it evolves the receipt of milk industry, while seasonally began to rise, arise unknowns with respect to droughts regional and also small signs of improvement in economic activity in which they imply that the recession ended.
The last factor and the summary of the 3 previous ones is the stock level that derives from the production by adding initial stock and subtracting consumption and export. It is a key element in the decision to industrial to bid or not for the milk. Throughout the year 2024 despite a drop in the consumption mentioned the stock level has been lower than the year 2023 (see figure “Stocks of dairy products”, expressed in a relative evolution of the equivalent litres in total)
The tambero for 24 months has been accumulating losses due to the deterioration of relative prices input/output. From June 2024 the buying capacity of corn is normalized and is currently +23% above the historical average of 2 kg of corn/liter of milk. In these months the price of milk is amesetaron, but in brief we will visit again on the stage of bidding for the raw material. The consumption is going to recover, the international prices are toned and you will find us without Export Rights. We project that the ability to purchase the corn will remain above the historical average for that we will enter in a cycle of good price and increasing production.
We estimate that come times of economic stability, where to grow, both the tambero as the industrial, you have to be efficient.
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