In the sixteenth
edition digital newsletter for the dairy sector, we can access the update in the month of AUGUST 2018 the calculation of Reference values of the liter of raw milk developed under the convention INTA-IAPUCo, a work that constitutes a unique and outstanding contribution to build trust between the stakeholders of the Dairy Chain.
We present the graph that summarizes the dynamics of the supply and demand of the dairy market argentino in the past 22 months. Remember that this information should not be taken as a data point accurate given that it arises from more than 500 models evaluated, and presents a large scatter. It is rather a novel tool for actors in the sector to be ORIENTED to interpret what happens between the supply and demand of milk and observe the TREND that the market holds.
The analysis starts in November of 2016. Up to march 2017 is a sample of the period lose-lose that covered the 19 months prior to the start of this convention where the price paid for the raw material (blue line) was not covered by the values that are needed to cover the costs of production of the raw material (dotted line) and exceeded also the possible values of pay for the milk (red line for the Mega and Large-scale Industry and yellow to the Small and Medium-sized dairies). From April 2017 until September 2017, the system generated net positive. But as of January 2018 the costs of producing milk begin a climbing notorious sinking to the production in a drift is not observed previously in the series, to deepen during the month of August. Fortunately, in August, you start to see an improvement in the ability to pay of the big industry attributable to a greater involvement of the external market in the business portfolio.
All of this combine to that of 2018 to accumulate values retained negative of the entire string, with the industrial sector arrimándose in August to the loss of the primary sector. September has been a month with a strong rearrangement in the lists of prices and improvement of business exporter by +30% in growth of the exchange rate. We'll see how it evolves the box in the next edition as there is a very high correlation, the analysis of weights gives an r2= 0,91, between the FOB price of the milk powder and the price paid to the producer. The pressure applied by the external market on the industry that are not exported will force you to rethink strategies entrepreneurs, but it is undoubtedly a fact that the whole dairy chain needs for his subsistence :
