The milk production so far this year, jan-oct 2024, has accumulated a deficit of 2.7 million litres per day, a -8.8% below the same period in 2023. In the chart below as to observe the evolution with the sharp drop in fall 2024, and a recovery towards the spring where it equals the level of October 2023 but casting shadows on the productive potential due to the shortage of cows and heifers. The year 2024 would close with a loss of approximately -8% over the 2023 and would continue to 2025, with some 1 to 1.5 million lt/d below business as usual by the missing of finance mentioned. Keep in mind that the drums are making the greatest possible effort in an attempt to recover the finances after two years, 2022, and 2023 of business at a loss, taking advantage of the excellent current ratio of price milk:corn...and here they came.
The exports remain above last year until October (which in November 2023 grew thanks to the elimination of the DEx and the adjustment of the exchange rate for what we'll see in November 2024 if the curves intersect). In the period jan-oct 2024 Argentina accumulates volume of dairy products exported +13% higher than the same period in 2023. Between cheese and milk powder is explained 94% of the exported corresponding to 60% of milk powder and 40 % to cheeses. The half of the cheese is mozzarella. The destination is majority Brazil.
Despite having a milk production -8.8% lower and a domestic consumption -15% lower than that by 2023, the level of exports managed to keep the stock values lower than 2023 during 2024. Being that half of the milk in argentina is intended to cheese production, and many of the cheese-makers are limited to the domestic market, the majority of the stock of dairy cheeses are.
It begins to tighten the rope of the sale-purchase of raw material. While the processing industry facing business adjusted, the receipts of milk seasonally decreasing and a stock level below what would be expected, forecasts that underpin the settings of producer price above the level of inflation.
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